A Rebalancing Chinese Economy: Challenges and International Implications

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Date(s) - 06/06/16
9:30am - 11:00am


ACFS/Finsia Office
L46, Rialto South Tower, 525 Collins Street

Dr Guonan Ma will provide a briefing on Monday 6th June, 9.30 – 11am, to discuss “A Rebalancing Chinese Economy: Challenges and International Implications”

This discussion considers the interplay between China’s domestic and external imbalances and their global implications.

Dr Guonan Ma will present macroeconomic evidence that a rebalancing from a lop-sided investment- and export-driven pattern of growth towards more consumption-driven growth is already occurring in China, supported by a declining return to capital and a now-rising labour share of income. Consistent with these developments, the bulk of adjustment in coming years is likely to occur through slowing investment rather than an increase in the growth rate of consumption. Using input-output tables, Dr Guonan Ma will illustrate the linkages between expenditure-side and production-side rebalancing of the economy, and how such an adjustment could reduce or worsen China’s current account imbalance under a number of scenarios for growth and rebalancing. In net terms, he conclude that a resolution of internal imbalances may well exacerbate external imbalances rather than the reverse. Calculations using global input-output tables further suggest that, without a significant reorientation of international trade flows or prices, the patterns of rebalancing considered in our scenarios will generate substantial headwinds for exports to China by its major trading partners.

About the Speaker:

Dr Guonan Ma is a visiting research fellow at Bruegel. Prior to this, he was a senior economist at the Representative Office for Asia and the Pacific of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) for thirteen years. Before joining the BIS in 2001, he worked as a chief North Asia economist for ten years at various investment banks, including Merrill Lynch, Salomon Smith Barney and Bankers Trust.

Prior to his investment bank career, he was a lecturer of economics and research fellow at the Australian National University for four years following the completion of his Ph.D. in economics at the University of Pittsburgh (1990). Dr Ma was born in China where he obtained his undergraduate degree at Beijing University (1982). Guonan Ma has many publications on the Asian and Chinese economies and financial markets over the years.

An invitation only event

Frieda Kukulka, Senior Manager Marketing & Events
(03) 9666 1007 (Tues – Thurs)